Heineken’s War of Attrition

Context

In war, it’s not the biggest army that always wins, but the one most willing to adapt, regroup, and redeploy with purpose. When COVID hit in 2020, Heineken – one of the world’s largest brewers – found itself in the trenches of a commercial battlefield unlike anything it had faced in its 160-year history. 

Overnight, the frontline – pubs, bars, and restaurants – went dark. What followed was a gruelling campaign of crisis management, rearmament, and tactical redeployment that would test its mettle to the limit.

Real-Life Story

The opening salvo of the pandemic landed hard. With hospitality venues shuttered worldwide, Heineken’s profits collapsed by 76%. A €2.2bn profit in 2019 turned into a €204m net loss in 2020. This wasn’t just a bad quarter; it was a direct hit to the company’s engine room.

Under fire, Heineken executed a painful but necessary retreat. It slashed 8,000 roles or roughly 10% of its global workforce while initiating a €2bn cost-saving mission. The goal was to protect the company’s long-term brand strength, even if it meant short-term casualties.

Inflationary Crossfire

No sooner had Heineken started regrouping than a second wave of pressure emerged. This time, from soaring inflation and choked supply chains. The cost of energy and raw materials spiked in 2023, forcing Heineken into its boldest pricing manoeuvre in over a decade. Prices were hiked by as much as 14%, allowing turnover to hold the line, but at the cost of beer volumes and operating profit.

In the first half of 2023 alone, operating profit dropped by 22%, while net profit sank 9% year-on-year. The Asia-Pacific region, particularly Vietnam, turned into a weak flank. Heineken had no choice but to lower its earnings forecast. The price of survival, it seemed, was paid in reduced volumes and thinning margins.

Regrouping and Counterattacks

Redrawing the battle lines, Heineken’s leadership deployed a multi-pronged counteroffensive. The mission was to stabilise the base, fortify key positions, and strike back with a refined playbook.

Heineken leaned hard into operational efficiency. Having already shed thousands of jobs, the company doubled down on cost control, saving €800m in 2023 alone and targeting an additional €500m. With a war chest in hand, it reinvested in its most valuable weapons: premium brands such as Birra Moretti and Beavertown, which continued to outshine the broader market in the UK.

The company also intensified efforts in the low- and no-alcohol space – fast becoming a growth engine in the beverage sector – as shifting consumer tastes demanded fresh innovation.

Leveraging Digital and Premium Assets

In the thick of the fog, Heineken understood that firepower alone wasn’t enough – it needed precision. The brewer upgraded its digital arsenal, enhancing e-commerce capabilities and B2B platforms. These new tools improved agility and intelligence, helping Heineken reach customers in new ways, bypass traditional bottlenecks, and sharpen its targeting.

Meanwhile, the pivot to premium product lines, with a focus on higher-margin products, began paying dividends. While overall volumes fell, revenue per hectolitre improved. In the first quarter of 2025, premium beer volumes grew by 1.8%, with the flagship Heineken brand clocking in at 4.6% growth.

Tactical Manoeuvring in Regional Markets

Heineken didn’t fight on every front. It reallocated resources to stronger positions and pulled back from underperforming zones. In Asia Pacific, it reassessed operations and recalibrated for future engagement. Where currency devaluation or low demand threatened viability, it didn’t hesitate to pivot.

The company also reinforced supply chain resilience by renegotiating contracts, securing critical raw materials, and adapting logistics to navigate ongoing transport and sourcing snags.

At the heart of Heineken’s campaign stood the EverGreen strategy – a central command philosophy around sustainable growth, digital innovation, and organisational health. 

Even as Heineken took damage, it stayed the course. The company maintained its full-year 2025 outlook, forecasting organic operating profit growth of 4% to 8%, despite global volatility and consumer pullback. Confidence in strategy became a rallying cry for troops weary from years of attrition.

Victory by Endurance

By 2025, Heineken’s battle scars had become visible but so was its resilience. Though overall revenue fell by 4.9% due to lower volumes, the brewer clawed back with 0.9% organic net revenue growth, driven by smart pricing and an upgraded product mix. Margins, once under siege, began to stabilise.

Cost discipline also enabled it to keep investing in brand firepower and customer experience without bleeding out. In short, Heineken shifted from a defensive crouch to an offensive posture – leaner, wiser, and still in the fight.

PostScript: As global headwinds persist – geopolitical instability, consumer belt-tightening, and environmental pressures – Heineken is battle-hardened. Its supply lines are steadier, its troop morale higher, and its premium brands and digital tools now well-honed.

Heineken’s story is no fairy tale comeback. It’s a case study in disciplined warfare: cut deep, move fast, and keep your eye on the long game. As far as WarTime CEOs go, Heineken’s leadership has proven one thing. It’s not just about surviving the ambush but about staying in formation long enough to win the next war.

Key Lessons

1) Don’t Flinch in the First Strike

When a crisis hit, Heineken didn’t hesitate to acknowledge losses, slash costs, and restructure its workforce. A prompt, decisive response buys time and preserves core operations during the fog of uncertainty.

2) Trim the Fat, Build Muscle

Cutting costs is necessary, but cutting the wrong costs is fatal. Heineken made strategic reductions while doubling down on its premium and growing product segments. This enabled it to retain the muscle needed to fight back.

3) Price with Precision, Not Panic  

Raising prices during inflation is tricky terrain. Heineken’s 14% hike dented volumes but helped offset raw material shocks. Smart pricing is a scalpel, not a sword – it should be wielded with care.

4) Volume isn’t Victory – Value is

Heineken accepted lower beer volumes in exchange for better margins per unit. In tough times, quality growth often outperforms brute scale. Value beats volume in a cash-strapped consumer market.

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Until next week, may the force be with you.

Kevin

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